WASHINGTON ‒ Money wouldn't be a problem forElon Muskin hisquest to build a new national political party. But even for the world's richest man ‒ who has sent rocket ships to space and owns his own social media platform ‒ launching a viable third party in the United States is riddled with so many challenges that it makes the endeavor a long shot, according to political scientists, pollsters and other experts who have studied the topic. Fueled by his distaste forPresident Donald Trump'sdebt-exploding "Big Beautiful Bill," Musk on July 5announced the formation of "the American Party"‒ a movement he said will "fight the Republican/Democrat Uniparty." He argued that "when it comes to bankrupting our country," both Democrats and Republicans are the same. More:Elon Musk announces new 'America' party after slamming Trump's megabill Proclaiming the existence of a political party doesn't make it one, however. Besides the technical hurdles to place congressional and presidential candidates on ballots in states, the 54-year-old Tesla and SpaceX CEO would need to overcome a long history of third-party failures in the United States and his own weak political standing. Only 36% of voters nationally had a favorable opinion ofMusk in a June Reuters/Ipsos poll. "If the goal is to actually to win seats or even a few seats ‒ which seems to be what he's talking about right now ‒ it's probably an insurmountable thing," said Bernard Tamas, a political science professor at Valdosta State University and author of "The Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties." More:'Train wreck': Trump slams Musk after billionaire announces new political party Musk, a former top White House adviser who's turned into a fierce Trump foe, must first check off some logistical boxes to make the American Party a reality. That begins with filing the new partywith the Federal Election Commission to raise or spend money, which he has not done. The FEC wouldn't be able to take immediate action to formalize the party because it lacks a quorum on the six-member panel after Trumphas failed to nominate individuals for three vacancies. Muskhas suggested he would focus on fieldingAmerican Party candidates in two or three 2026 Senate races and eight to 10 House races. But for them to gain ballot access in the states he targets, the party would need to meet required petition thresholds, which can number tens of thousands of signatures of registered voters, depending on the state. Those efforts could face legal challenges if one of the two major parties views the third-party challengers as threats to peel off votes, election experts say. Meanwhile, building party infrastructure from scratch to match the well-financed Democratic and Republican machines would be no easy task ‒ although Musk's billions in personal wealth could certainly help on that end. Whether Musk has the political clout to fuel a third-party movement that takes off is perhaps the biggest question mark. Despite his vocal opposition over rising debt from Trump's megabill, Musk failed to convert any Republican members of Congress to his side to vote against the bill, which passed Congress with widespread Republican support. The three Republican senators andtwo GOP memberswho voted against the legislation weren't Musk's doing. Many Republican members of Congress told USA TODAYthat they were turned offby Musk's scorched-earth attacks. Muskfamously floppedwhen he inserted himself and millions of his dollars into Wisconsin's special election for a state Supreme Court seat in April. The Republican candidate lost by about 10 percentage points despite Musk declaring "the future of America and Western Civilization" at stake. More:President Trump says he'll 'have to take a look' at deporting Elon Musk as feud reignites Musk lacks a clear political following. And recruiting viable candidates might be a challenge. Already despised by many on the left, Musk has now turned off much of Trump's MAGA baseamid his public feud with Trumpsince departing the White House as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. "I'm skeptical that he has the following to do it. I'm also skeptical he has the strategy to do it either," Tamas said, adding that an even "bigger problem" is that Musk lacks a coherent message. "You have to tap into people's anger. It's not enough to say, 'We're not the Democrats or the Republicans. Let's all get along and talk.' This never goes anywhere." "It's good that he has the money," Tamas added, "but other than that, I'm not sure what he brings to the table." USA TODAY's efforts to reach Musk to respond to the skepticism on his third-party aspirations were unsuccessful. Polling has long suggested Americans support the concept of a strong third party in the United States. A Gallup poll conducted in October 2024found 58% of Americans, including 69% of self-described independent voters, said Democrats and Republicans "do such a poor job" that a third party is needed. Although down from a record-high 63% of Americans in 2023, it marked the 12th straight year of a majority reading on that question. Similarly, USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls conducted over the past decade have found increasing support for third parties from Americans who say they don't typically vote in elections: 53% of these voters in 2012 said a third parry is necessary; 57% said the same in in 2018; and 64% in 2023. More:Elon Musk announces 'America Party': What to know about third parties in the U.S. Even so, third parties have failed to gain traction electorally, both in Congress and in presidential elections. When it comes to voting ‒ not responding to general questions in a poll ‒ entrenched loyalties to the two dominant parties have proven too strong. "The trend has been there for quite some time, but the implementation has not," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said of the disconnect between support for the concept of third parties versus election results. Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine are both independents but caucus with Democrats. Other third parties in the United States, including the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, have not won any congressional seats. The last third-party presidential candidate to mount a serious threat to the White House was Ross Perot, who in 1992 won 19% of the popular votes but carried no states in the all-important Electoral College as an independent running on a "Reform Party" platform. More recently, consumer activist Ralph Nader finished with 2.7% of the popular vote in the 2000 election. Rather than putting states in play, Democrats remember him for the 97,488 votes he won in Florida, which they argue helped swing the election-deciding state from Al Gore to George W. Bush. Even the early 20th-century Progressive Party ‒ typically regarded as the most successful third-party in United States history ‒ was more impactful in pushing Progressive-era reforms tackling business monopolies and improving worker rights than winning elections. After serving as the Republican president from 1901 to 1909, Theodore Roosevelt formed the Progressive Party, or "Bull Moose Party," in 1912 when he failed to win the Republican nomination for a third term. His candidacy syphoned Republican voters from the party's nominee, William Howard Taft, in the general election won by Democrat Woodrow Wilson. The former president's new political party dissolved in 1920. Trumplashed out at Musk over his third-party plans, saying in a Truth Social post that his former sidekick has gone "completely off the rails" and noting third parties have "never succeeded in the United States." He later brushed off any political challenges the American Partycould pose when asked by a reporter on July 8 whether he's concerned about Musk's effort. "I think it will help us. It will probably help, Trump told reporters during a July 8 Cabinet meeting. "Third parties have always been good for me. I don't know about Republicans, but for me." Trump appeared to be referencing the 2024 independent presidential runs of liberal academic Cornel West and the Green Party's Jill Stein, whoTrump allies worked to boost in battleground statesto peel off votes from Democrats. Musk's party, however, would seemingly be better positioned to appeal to Republican voters than Democrats. More:'It will help us': Trump says he's not worried about Elon Musk's new political party A former senior Trump campaign official told USA TODAY that Musk's third-party threat is not on the radar within Trump's orbit, downplaying the tech entrepreneur's push as the stuff of online chatter that isn't being discussed in the real world. Still, Musk's third-party pledge has irked some Musk adversaries in Trump's world. Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist,sounded off on Musk's announcement on his "War Room" podcast, calling Musk a "buffoon" and "Elmo the Mook." "Only a foreigner could do this ‒ think about it," Bannon said, referring to Musk being born in South Africa. "A non-American starting an America Party." Musk became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2002 after previously gaining Canadian citizenship through his mother. Not long ago, Musk in 2018 described himself as "independent and politically moderate"before he started to embrace Trump and the MAGA movement during the 2024 campaign, pumping more than $290 million in the election to boost the Republican presidential nominee and Republican candidates for Congress. For all the skepticism on his third-party hopes, Musk might have one other thing going for him besides his deep pockets as he tries to pull off a third-party breakthrough: a thirst to disrupt. More:Elon Musk vows to defeat Republicans who vote for Donald Trump's mega bill Musk has upended traditional norms of the business world.He swiftly fired top executivesand thousands of employees when he bought Twitter. He took a sledgehammer to the federal government during his four-month stint at DOGE. He nowseems willing to take down the same Republican Partyhe supported in the 2024 election. Paleologos called Musk a "disrupter at his core." "Musk thrives on being doubted," he said. "And this is the ultimate overcoming (of) massive doubt that you can have." Reach Joey Garrison on X @joeygarrison. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Why Elon Musk's new national party is easier said than done
