While Democrats such as New York Gov. Kathy Hochul say they will "fight fire with fire" and counter Texas Republicans' planned redistricting, the GOP is in a much stronger position to alter congressional maps in its favor before the 2026 midterms. Republicans have the potential to flip at least nine seats in the House of Representatives if they redraw district maps in heavily populated states where they have the power to redistrict. Democrats, on the other hand, are hamstrung in the biggest blue statessuch as Californiaand New York that have enacted redistricting reforms to prevent one party from having too much control over map-drawing. In all, five new Republican seats could come from Texas, two to three from Ohio, and at least one from Florida. The ruby red states of Indiana and Missouri have discussed re-drawing their maps, and could add one seat each, but have not taken steps forward yet. The number of seats Democrats could win is less clear because the process would be slower and less certain. Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida, said the purpose of Democrats pushing back on Republican efforts to redistrict "is really to shine a light on the Republicans' anti-democratic tendencies" as part of their messaging strategy. The mid-decade redistricting movement could provide a short-run benefit to Republicans, who are at risk of losing their219-212 majorityin the House of Representatives. What is gerrymandering?See where the term comes from. While states typically redistrict every decade in the two years that follow the new census,President Donald Trumphas encouraged redistricting to happen ahead of 2026. Even several seats may not be enough to withstand the tendency of the party in the White House to lose seats in between presidential elections. In 2010, under President Barack Obama, the House of Representatives swungtoward Republicans by 63 seats in 2010. Here's a look at where redistricting is in progress, and where leaders have said they're considering redrawing their maps. Republicans' biggest gains in redistricting would come from Florida, Ohio and Texas, the most populous states with unified Republican control of state government. All of these states are taking action related to redistricting, and the resulting maps could provide Republicans up to nine new seats. In Texas, the Republican-led state legislature is moving aggressively to pass a new congressional map with five new districts likely to lean Republican. WhileDemocrats left the state in protestto deny their colleagues a quorum, Republican Gov. Greg Abbottissued arrest warrantsfor the Democrats who fled, andTrump suggestedthe FBI may have to force them back to the state. "I'm a little skeptical that that shift is going to be enough to withstand what's going to happen in the larger blue wave that's likely to happen in the 2026 election nationally in response to Trump," McDonald said of the five congressional seats Texas Republicans are attempting to re-draw. Ohio was already planning to re-draw its congressional map because of gerrymandering reform language in the state constitution. Becauseno Democratsin the state legislature voted in favor of the new maps drawn in response to the 2020 Census, the Republican-approved map could only legally be used in 2022 and 2024. The legislature must draw a new map and pass itby Nov. 30. Observers are expecting two to three more seats to lean Republican, potentially affecting voters in the Akron, Cincinnati and Toledo areas. Florida House of Representatives Speaker Daniel Perez has announceda special committee for redistrictingthat will focus exclusively on the state's congressional map, not state legislative maps. He said there is limited time to handle additional redistricting, and points to a recent state supreme court case that upheld the Republican-friendlycongressional map. Gov.Ron DeSantissaid Aug. 11that Florida should have gotten an additional seat during the 2020 census and raised questions about the congressional districts in south Florida.Politicopointed to any of three Democratic-held seats in south Florida as potential targets. The DC-based news outletPunchbowlreports that Republicans want at least three seats from a new map. Additional Republican congressional seats could be drawn in the staunchly Republican states of Indiana and Missouri — one in each state — but the process for doing so is not as far along as in other states. Governors of both states would need to call special legislative sessions to have the legislature redraw the maps. Vice President JD Vancetook the unusual step ofvisiting Indianato meet with some of the state'stop Republican officialsAug. 7 and discuss redistricting. While Republicans already hold seven of the state's nine congressional seats, an expert says they have their eyes on the1st Congressional District, which covers the northwest corner of Indiana and includes the suburbs of Chicago. It's more moderate than the other Democratic-leaning district, which encompasses Indianapolis, and the Cook Partisan Voting Index currently ranks the district as a slight Democratic lean, so changing the boundary to add GOP voters could tip the balance. Republicans also have targeted the seat in past elections. Republicans hold a super-majority in the state legislature in Missouri. The state has eight congressional seats, and only two are currently held by Democrats. Republicans are eyeing Missouri's 5th District, according to theMissouri Independent. The district encompasses a large portion of the Kansas City area and is currently held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. But even the Republican legislature rejected a similar map in 2022 that gave seven seats to the Republicans, according toSt. Louis Public Radio. Democrats who run populous states are considering redistricting, but some of them face a hurdle: Their parties don't have control over drawing legislative maps. Instead, the power is in the hands of independent commissions, something often left-leaning pro-democracy advocates have supported to enact fair maps that reduce gerrymandering. In California, the only state more populous than Texas, Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to hold a special election in November so voters can greenlight a one-time redistricting plan to add seats for Democrats, according toABC 7 News. He wants five to six seats in time for 2026,according to CalMatters. The congressional maps that are drawn every decade are usually completed by theCalifornia Citizens Redistricting Commission, which includes Democrats, Republicans and independents. New York Gov. Kathy Hochulwrote in an Aug. 5 op-edthat she's looking at ways to re-draw the maps. "If Republicans are changing the rules, we'll meet them on the same field," she wrote. That includes asking voters to approve a constitutional amendment to allow for mid-decade redistricting, according toCity & State New York. The move would bypass the state'sindependent redistricting commission, which essentially stops the Democratic-led legislature from drawing its own maps. Change wouldn't come before 2028. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said in asocial media postAug. 10 that Congress should pass new, fair maps, but said until that happens, "Democratic states must consider all the options to protect our constitutional republic." Common Cause, a left-leaning nonpartisan group that supports redistricting reform,gives Illinois an Ffor its maps that are drawn by the Democratic-led state legislature. It's not clear how many seats Illinois could gain or when. New Jersey has aredistricting commissionthat was created by a state constitutional amendment. A change to the process would require a change to the state constitution,according to Politico. Despite the long odds, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries specificallytold CNNhe'd be interested in redistricting New Jersey. Gov. Phil Murphy didn't rule it out, but also hasn't taken action, making any seats gained unclear. "Never bring a knife to a gunfight," Murphytold the New Jersey Globeon July 21, quoting a Sean Connery movie. "So if that's the way we're going, we're from Jersey, baby, and we won't be laying down." Contributing: Columbus Dispatch reporter Jesse Balmert; Indianapolis Star reporters Brittany Carloni, Tony Cook, and Kayla Dwyer; and Talahassee Democrat reporter Gray Roher. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Republicans have upper hand in House seats in redistricting battle
