Here are the top House Democrats at risk from GOP redistricting
House Democrats in red states across the country are at risk as the redistricting arms race heats up. Texas Republicans' proposed redraw, a President Trump-backed plan that could net the party five more House seats, has led to other red statesmoving forward withtheir own redistricting plans. Florida, Indiana and Missouri are among the Republican-led states now weighing whether to redo their congressional maps — putting a number of Democratic incumbents at risk. Here are the House Democrats most likely to be targeted across the country: Republicans already control 25 of the 38 congressional seats in Texas, but the proposed changes could give them a 30-8 edge by slashing Democratic-controlled seats in Houston, Dallas and Austin-San Antonio. One of the biggest proposed changes affects Rep. Greg Casar's (D-Texas) 35th Congressional District, which went to former Vice President Harris by 33 points in November. The map would create a new +10 Trump district outside of San Antonio, according toanalysisfrom Cook Political Report. Casar hascalledthe would-be destruction of his district "illegal voter suppression of Black and Latino Central Texans." The Austin base of Casar's current district would be pushed into the 37th Congressional District, now held by Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas). The changes couldset up a potential primary matchupbetween Casar and Doggett, who has accused Trump of "taking a hatchet to chop up Austin and our state with the sole objective of maintaining his one-man rule." The Texas plan would reshape the 32nd Congressional District, currently based in Dallas and held by Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas). By stretching the district into East Texas, it would become a +18 Trump seat, according tothe Cook Political Report. Johnson has been amongthe voicesheralding Texas state House Democrats for fleeing the state to break quorum and stall "a rigged map." Rep. Marc Veasey's would see his 33rd Congressional District likely remain blue, but the longtime lawmaker would probably lose his hometown and political base in the redrawing. This could create a primary between Veasey and Johnson as the latter's seat is reshaped,analysisfrom the Texas Tribune suggests, if they both decide to try and stay in the House. Rep. Henry Cuellar's (D-Texas) seat in Texas's 28th Congressional District would shift rightward, from a +7 Trump district to a +10 post. The Cook Political Report says that Cuellar could "conceivably survive" the midterms, though he's currently grappling with anongoing criminal casethat could complicate any reelection prospects. Cuellar and his wife wereindictedby a federal grand jury in Houston last year on charges of participating in a bribery scheme. Like Cuellar, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) would see his 34th Congressional District seat get even redder, according to the Cook Political Report. Gonzalez won reelection byjust three pointslast year, so even a slight move toward the right could imperil reelection prospects. In a statement after the map's release, however, Gonzalez pointed to Trump's approval rating as he promised "we will win again." Rep. Al Green's (D) seat in Texas's 9th Congressional District would merge with the empty blue seat vacated by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), yielding a more conservative 9th district in the suburbs of east Houston. Al Green "almost certainly wouldn't run" in the new 9th, the Cook Political Report forecasts, but he could run for the vacant 18th seat. Meanwhile, a special election is ongoing to fill the vacancy for Turner's former seat. Ohio is the one state that's required to redistrict this year, after its 2022 maps failed to receive bipartisan support. Republicans boast a 10-5 majority in the current congressional delegation, and redistricting could mean a handful of Democrats see their districts get tougher. Rep. Mary Kaptur (D) in Ohio's 9th Congressional District is considered among themost vulnerableafter winning a highly competitive race in 2024. Her district went to Trump by roughly 7 points last year, according toThe Downballot. Like Kaptur, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) in Ohio's 13th Congressional District won a tight race in 2024 and has been targeted by the GOP as a potential pickup opportunity. The district waseffectively tiedbetween Trump and Harris in November. "It's no surprise that special interests in Washington and Columbus want to ignore the voters and rig the game," Sykes campaign spokesman Justin Barasky told The Hilllast month. Rep. Greg Landsman (D) in the 1st Congressional District around Cincinnati could also be impacted, according tothe Columbus Dispatch, thoughanti-gerrymandering rulesapproved by voters in 2018preventsredistricting from breaking up the city. Missouri's Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe hasindicated he'll look atthe possibility of redistricting in the state, where Republicans control six of eight districts. The Kansas City Star reportedlast month that Trump's political team had expressed interest in trying to gain another Show Me State seat, which wouldlikely beRep. Emmanuel Cleaver's 5th Congressional District in Kansas City. Cleaver, who has been in the seat for two decades,won reelectionwith 60 percent of the vote last fall, afterline changesin 2022. He told St. Louis Public Radio thatthe pushfor mid-decade redistricting is "very dangerous." Republicans appear to be eyeing Indiana, where Democrats hold just two House seats, as another opening. Amid redistricting chatter, Vice President Vance met on Thursday with Gov. Mike Braun (R), who would need to call a special session of the state General Assembly to initiate redrawing. If Indiana were to redistrict, changes would likely squeeze the 1st Congressional District in the northwest, where Rep.Frank Mrvan(D) has already been named asa national GOP targetfor 2026. "It is no surprise that some believe redistricting is the only option to cling to power when they know the American people are rejecting the damage done by the House Republican Majority," Mrvan said in a statement. A redraw could also affect Mrvan's fellow Democrat, Rep.Andre Carson(D-Ind.), though the 7th Congressional District around Indianapolis may be somewhat safer, since breaking up blue voters in the area could make other Republican House districts more vulnerable. Republicans hold the other seven House seats in Indiana. Florida's state House Speaker this weekannounced he'll forma redistricting committee after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signaled the Sunshine State could follow Texas's lead. There are just 8 House Democrats to 20 Republicans in Florida, and multiple blue seats could be endangered if a redraw moves forward. Republicans are hoping togain at least threeseats in the Sunshine State, Punchbowl News reported this week. One of the potentialSouth Florida targets is Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who won reelection in November by five points in a district thatwent to Harrisby just two points. Fellow South Florida Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Lois Frankelcould also be vulnerable, along with South Florida. Rep. Kathy Castor (D) in the Tampa area and Rep. Darren Soto (D) outside of Orlando. All five of these Democrats won their 2024 races with less than 60 percent of the vote. Moskowitz and Soto are already on the GOP campaign arm's target list. "It's called corruption when the only reason to redraw the maps is to hold onto power cause y'all are going to lose in '26," Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Friedsaid on X. Amid the Texas drama, chatter is percolating about redistricting possibilities in still more states. An analysisfrom Sabato's Crystal Ball forecasts there could be room for changes inNorth Carolina, where a new 2024 map netted the GOP three new seats, and in Kansas, which has just one blue seat — though it's all but guaranteed that Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) wouldn't call a special session to initiate talks. Republican Rep. Ralph Norman in South Carolina hassuggested a redrawthat could target longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn, the state's lone Democratic congressman, but the move isseen as unlikelygiven the already favorable 6-1 delegation split. With the exception of Ohio, it remains unclear which states will ultimately go through with redistricting, as Texas Democrats' dramatic quorum break stalls progress even in the Lone Star State. And even for those who do, it's not a guarantee that change could clear in time take effect before next fall's high-stakes midterms. Meanwhile, Democrats are looking to counter would-be GOP gains by weighingredistricting in blue strongholds, including California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has said he's moving forward with a plan to put redistricting before voters this fall, which would be triggered by what happens in Texas. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
Here are the top House Democrats at risk from GOP redistricting House Democrats in red states across the country are at risk as the redistri...
